Polls Increasingly Point to Ealing Not Being Safe for Labour

Projections see party retaining single-digit seat majority as likely outcome

Projected ward map by party after election. Picture: Pollcheck

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April 30, 2026

Political commentators looking at borough election contests across London have so far not had much to say about Ealing as it has been widely expected to remain under Labour control.

The polls still point to no change in the administration as being the most likely outcome but, over the last week or so, the chances of a surprise have steadily come to be considered more likely.

Back in 2022, the party won a commanding 57 seats, with six going to the Lib Dems and five to the Conservatives. But as voters prepare to return to the polls next week, the political landscape looks considerably less settled and a major change to the politic map seems assured.

Despite Keir Starmer's national landslide in the 2024 General Election, each of Ealing's three Labour MPs lost vote share. The main beneficiaries were the Greens, with a smaller slice going to Reform.

That trend has continued in polling since. YouGov's MRP model for the 2026 London borough elections now places Ealing among the most contested boroughs in the capital, grouping it with a set of inner London councils where Labour and the Greens are within five points of each other.

PollCheck's ward-level modelling currently projects Labour falling from 57 seats to around 40, within a possible range of 35 to 44. The model currently puts the probability of a change of council control at15% — a result that would have seemed almost unthinkable four years ago. Labour is projected to hold Ealing Council, but with a significantly reduced majority.

These projections must be treated with considerable caution. Ward-level modelling combines national polling data with demographic assumptions but cannot capture the impact of local issues, individual candidate performance, or the particular dynamics of multi-member first-past-the-post contests. In the most marginal wards, the difference between winning and losing may come down to fewer than a hundred votes — making confident predictions impossible.

With 70 councillors elected across the borough, Labour needs 36 seats to retain overall control. The party's position in its safest wards — concentrated largely in Southall — appears secure, with projected margins of victory well above 20 percentage points. That gives Labour a base of around 30 seats it should be able to count on leaving it with just six to win elsewhere.

Of the crucial battlegrounds, East Acton and Central Greenford are among the wards to watch: current projections suggest Labour is likely to take two of the three seats in each, but a clean sweep in both would go a long way to securing an overall majority, while losing every seat in these wards would leave the party scrambling. North Hanwell presents a different challenge, where the Greens are currently projected to be marginally ahead.

Shifts in projections haven’t all been against Labour. Previously Perivale was seen as potential target for the Greens but the latest polling has Labour comfortably ahead.

The most dramatic shift in the projections concerns the Green Party. Having won no seats at all in 2022, the Greens are forecast to take somewhere between 17 and 22 seats, potentially making them the second-largest group on the council. The Liberal Democrats, who held six seats last time, are projected to make modest net gains. Whether this polling underestimates the ground level work put in by the Lib Dems in target wards such as Walpole, which is currently ranked as the most marginal, remains to be seen.

Across London as a whole, YouGov's model paints a highly fragmented picture, with all five of England's largest parties registering double-digit vote shares in central projections. Ealing reflects this fragmentation acutely. The Conservatives, once the main opposition, are expected to fall sharply. Reform UK is projected to pick up at least one seat.

Polls close at 10pm on 7 May. Results in Ealing are expected in the early hours of 8 May.