Greens, Lib Dems and Reform Projected to Make Gains in Ealing

Key battleground wards concentrated in the centre of the borough

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April 14, 2026

With the full candidate lists now declared for the May local elections, a clearer picture is emerging of the contest ahead.

Previous results and early polling suggest that the main battleground seats will be in the centre of the borough from Ealing Common to Hanwell where all the main parties have expectations of winning seats.

The following analysis is largely based on polling carried out by Pollcheck, an organisation unaligned to any political group that publishes ward level predictions. It uses historic voting, recent national polling and demographic data to project results at a local level. This methodology will not take account of specific local factors such as a councillor’s performance in office and particular issues which are important to local voters.

The continuing breakdown of the two-party system has made the situation much more complex therefore any projections should be seen as speculative. One thing that the political parties across the spectrum agree on is that the result of this election is uniquely difficult to call.

Below we look more closely at the wards predicted to have the lowest winning margin as well as others where a change of party representation is anticipated.

Selected Ward Results Ranked by Expected Victory Margin

Ward	Winner	Margin (pp)	Lab	Con	LD	Green	Ref	Others
Pitshanger	Lab/Reform	3.4	25.7	17.1	20.8	14.1	22.3	0.0
Walpole	Green/Lib Dem	3.5	10.3	13.9	25.9	29.4	15.9	4.7
Perivale	Lab/Green	10.9	36.6	14.7	4.0	25.7	19.0	0.0
Northfield	Green	12.2	12.6	20.0	13.7	32.2	16.6	4.9
Southall West	Lab	15.3	42.5	5.3	4.1	27.3	12.0	8.9
Ealing Broadway	Con	15.5	8.1	35.9	20.4	19.2	16.4	0.0
Southall Broadway	Lab	16.5	44.5	7.6	4.1	28.0	12.7	3.1
Central Greenford	Lab	21.8	43.7	14.1	11.0	9.3	21.9	0.0
Northolt Mandeville	Lab	22.4	47.6	25.2	5.8	10.0	11.5	0.0
North Hanwell	Lab	22.9	42.5	6.9	12.3	18.6	19.7	0.0
Dormers Wells	Lab	24.1	50.3	3.8	4.0	26.2	12.9	2.7
Hanger Hill	LD	24.1	9.9	25.6	49.7	9.6	4.7	0.5
North Greenford	Lab	28.2	47.7	10.0	12.8	9.9	19.5	0.0
Hanwell Broadway	Green	29.6	19.1	4.2	12.8	48.8	15.1	0.0
Southall Green	Lab	32.2	54.2	3.8	4.0	22.0	13.1	2.9
Greenford Broadway	Lab	36.5	53.6	10.0	8.6	10.7	17.1	0.0
Ealing Common	LD	36.8	8.0	9.5	52.8	15.9	13.8	0.0
Northolt West End	Lab	38.5	57.6	4.6	8.7	9.9	19.1	0.0
Norwood Green	Lab	42.7	57.5	2.5	7.2	11.9	14.8	6.1
Lady Margaret	Lab	44.2	58.5	6.4	9.5	11.2	14.3	0.0

The borough’s most marginal ward is projected to be Pitshanger where Labour is defending all three seats. Five parties will believe they have a chance in this seat with voting fairly evenly split between Labour, Conservatives, Greens, Lib Dems and Reform. Pollcheck’s analysis currently shows Labour keeping two seats with the last going to Reform but, given the margin of error, this seat is clearly in the ‘two close to call’ category. That is the peak of the good news for Reform in the borough as it is the only seat they are projected to get at this point.

Pitshanger
Party	Candidate
Labour	Rima Baaklini
Reform UK	Will Calito
Conservative	Will Copping
Liberal Democrat	Francesco Daniele Fruzza
Conservative	Grace Hunter
Green Party	Alex James
Labour	Shaira Karimi
Reform UK	Chris Lumb
Green Party	Sarah McCartney
Ealing Community Independents	Tina Moonen
Liberal Democrat	Rod Nathan
Conservative	Liz Paice
Green Party	Emma Powell
Liberal Democrat	Humaira Sanders
Reform UK	Kas Ullah
Labour	Ben Wesson

The second tightest contest is predicted to be in Walpole where the Greens and the Lib Dems are shown as going head-to-head. At the moment the Greens have a slight edge and are projected to take two of the three seats with the last going to the current main opposition party. However the Lib Dems have been campaigning very hard in this ward and will have a head start having announced their candidates last July.

Walpole
Party	Candidate
Reform UK	Brian Coe
Labour	Catherine Anne Fitzgibbon
Liberal Democrat	Will Francis
Ealing Community Independents	Darius Ghazyzadeh
Reform UK	Marian Glynn
Conservative	Isobel Grant
Green Party	Barry Greenan
Green Party	Robin Gutch
Conservative	Anu Khela
Green Party	Tom Matthews
Liberal Democrat	Ksenia Maximova
Conservative	Shanuk Mediwaka
Liberal Democrat	Matt Mellor
Labour	Grace Barbara Quansah
Labour	Binda Rai
Ealing Community Independents	Carl Russell
Ealing Community Independents	Richard Tall

Perivale ward is ranked as Labour’s second most vulnerable with the Greens emerging as the main challenger. The expectation is that the ruling party will hang on to two seats with the Greens taking the third.

Perivale
Party	Candidate
Labour	Munir Ahmed
Ealing Community Independents	Debbie Allen
Conservative	Zekél Atherley
Conservative	Vlod Barchuk
Liberal Democrat	Carl Brooks
Liberal Democrat	Clive Davis
Reform UK	Gabor Horvath
Labour	Tariq Mahmood
Reform UK	Marie Marjolin
Green Party	Juliana Niederwanger
Conservative	Ian Proud
Liberal Democrat	Sarah Seton-Rogers
Labour	Charan Bala Sharma
Reform UK	Jedidiah Sivapalan

In Northfield, the Conservatives remain competitive in a ward they have often had councillors elected for previously. This time out the Greens are projected to take all three seats in a crowded field with 18 contenders. That would result would mean the departure of Paul Driscoll, Cabinet Member for Climate Action, who has been an advocate of the controversial Lammas Park drainage project. One of the Lib Dem candidates is Nigel Bakhai who used to represent the party in Elthorne ward (now Hanwell Broadway).

Northfield
Party	Candidate
Conservative	Arthur Alexander
Liberal Democrat	Mark Andrews
Liberal Democrat	Nigel Bakhai
Ealing Community Independents	Mike Barnshaw
Reform UK	Nigel Bird
Green Party	Nikki Daniel
Green Party	Ian Douglas
Labour	Paul William Driscoll
Liberal Democrat	Robert Hall
Conservative	Anita Kapoor
Labour	Ian Arthur George Kingston
Reform UK	Joshue Lemontagnard
Reform UK	Karen McFall
Conservative	Theresa Mullins
Ealing Community Independents	Florence Pinaud
Ealing Community Independents	Craig Smith
Green Party	Ruby Smith
Labour	Sinead Ann Whelan

Although generally Labour appears to have comfortable majorities on the west of the borough, it could be vulnerable in Southall West and Southall Broadway where the Greens are mounting a challenge. The projected majority of 15 percentage points in Southall West is the lowest for that part of the borough and Southall Broadway is only marginally higher.

Southall Broadway
Party	Candidate
Labour	Shahbaz Ahmed
Green Party	Rowan Beentje
Liberal Democrat	Robin Bettridge
Conservative	Darshan Singh Bhinder
Ealing Community Independents	Angela Fonso
Ealing Community Independents	Chaudhry Qamer Iqbal
Reform UK	Mo Latif
Reform UK	Sheung-yuen Lee
Conservative	Mohd Ibrahim Miah
Labour	Kamaljit Kaur Nagpal
Liberal Democrat	David Zerdin

Southall West
Party	Candidate
Ealing Community Independents	Dan Cortese
Liberal Democrat	Alison Cross
Liberal Democrat	Roger Davies
Ealing Community Independents	Sukhi Floria
Reform UK	Steve Johnston
Conservative	Md Feroz Khan
Green Party	Gurpal Kular
Reform UK	Zeljko Leventic
Conservative	Mohammad Tota Miah
Labour	Faduma Ayan Ahmed Hagi Mohamed
Labour	Kim Kaur Nagpal

The last bastion of the Conservative party may prove to be Ealing Broadway where projections show that it will hang on to the three seats it currently holds there. This is an astonishing decline for a group that, as recently as 2010, controlled the council. Even this grim scenario might not be as bad as it gets as the projected lead over the Greens and the Lib Dems is not huge and if candidates from either party start getting some momentum and consolidated the progressive vote, they could overhaul the Tory advantage.

Ealing Broadway
Party	Candidate
Liberal Democrat	Francesco Fruzza
Conservative	Julian Gallant
Conservative	Sean Hanrahan
Rejoin EU	Georgie Louise Hare
Reform UK	David Hounsell
Liberal Democrat	Adam Keenan
Conservative	Seema Kumar
Liberal Democrat	Mandy Lurie
Labour	Mahdi Imam Murtaza
Labour	Alex Norfolk
Green Party	Neil Reynolds
Green Party	Freya Summersgill
Green Party	Mark Uddin
Labour	Iram Woolley

Other than these seats majorities of over 20 percentage points are projected in other wards. For Labour to lose control of the council the opposition would probably have to take Central Greenford, Northolt Mandeville, North Hanwell and Dormers Wells. Reform would be the main challenger in Central Greenford, the Conservatives in Northolt Mandeville and the Greens in Dormers Wells with the Greens and Reform apparently vying the second highest share of the vote in North Hanwell.

Central Greenford
Party	Candidate
Labour	Munir Abbasi
Reform UK	Natalia Cassel
Green Party	Ted Chase
Conservative	Benjamin Davies
Conservative	Cathy Frisina
Liberal Democrat	Matthew Hirst
Independent	Haitham Idriss
Labour	Sanjai Kumar Kohli
Reform UK	Bob Little
Liberal Democrat	John William Mitchell
Green Party	Florence Olden-Chandler
Green Party	Frank Proud
Liberal Democrat	Ian Rex-Hawkes
Labour	Valery Patricia Ryan
Conservative	Peter Smith
Reform UK	Filomena Strollo

Northolt Mandeville
Party	Candidate
Liberal Democrat	Lawrence Aggleton
Labour	Andrew Bailey
Green Party	Katy Barton
Conservative	James Kevin Bremen
Reform UK	Donal de Blacam
Liberal Democrat	Leslie Hurst
Reform UK	Conrad Lewandowski
Conservative	Andrew Maddox
Conservative	Elliott Malik
Reform UK	Marco Manassero
Green Party	Beth McCormack
Liberal Democrat	Jim McWilliams
Labour	Dominic Moffitt
Labour	Miriam Edna Rice

Dormers Wells
Party	Candidate
Ealing Community Independents	Khalil Ahmed
Labour	Kanwal Kaur Bains
Reform UK	Alex Beniatian
Liberal Democrat	Bob Browning
Reform UK	David Burvill
Green Party	Annette Dean
Labour	Ranjit Lal Dheer
Green Party	Mark Eccleston
Ealing Community Independents	Raj Gill
Conservative	Dolu Khan
Liberal Democrat	Pat Mellor
Liberal Democrat	Oliver Murphy
Labour	Isabel Martha Owen
Ealing Community Independents	Anwar Sabar
Conservative	Babul Sharker
Conservative	Md Main Uddin
Rejoin EU	Mohd Moffiz Uddin

North Hanwell
Party	Candidate
Conservative	Kamran Ali
Liberal Democrat	Geoffrey Berg
Labour	Louise Brett
Reform UK	Andrew Evzona
Reform UK	Felicity Georghiades
TUSC	Tony Gill
Liberal Democrat	Zoe Horwich
Green Party	Dominic Kirkbride
Green Party	Tegan Millard
Conservative	Ian Potts
Green Party	John Rolt
Conservative	Minoo Sullivan
Labour	Lauren Marie Wall
Labour	Ray Wall
Liberal Democrat	Martin Williams

The Liberal Democrats are predicted to comfortably win all the seats in Hanger Hill ward and Ealing Common which has long been a target seat for them. In Hanger Hill, the incumbent Conservative councillor Fabio Conti is not defending his seat but the party are putting up veteran local politician, Anthony Young who previously represented Ealing Broadway.

Hanger Hill
Party	Candidate
Conservative	Edward Bailey
SDP	Stephen Andrew Balogh
Green Party	Kate Crossland
Green Party	Ben Fryer
Green Party	Hadi Khorsandi
Labour	David John Lines
Reform UK	Michael Minkov
Conservative	Dea Omari
Liberal Democrat	Jonathan Oxley
Reform UK	Deshal Raja
Liberal Democrat	Mark Sanders
Labour	Catherine Ann Wallace
Rejoin EU	Peter Mark Ward
Labour	Cianan John Whelan
Conservative	Anthony Young
Liberal Democrat	Athena Zissimos

Ealing Common
Party	Candidate
Green Party	Alexandru-Andrei Abutoaiei
Labour	Maxim Bagdasarian
Liberal Democrat	Jon Ball
Labour	Keith Scott Broomfield
Conservative	John Cowing
Reform UK	Jai Dhawan
Green Party	Lewis Garland
Conservative	Samuel Gibb
Liberal Democrat	Connie Hersch
Reform UK	Simon Ludgate
Labour	Mohinder Kaur Midha
Conservative	Roz Reece
Reform UK	Martin Shippey
Liberal Democrat	Lakhbir Singh
Green Party	Alex Vines

The Liberal Democrats will also have their eyes on Hanwell Broadway as well but this is projected to be a win for the Greens with the party taking all three seats. One of these would go to Clare Welsby, a prominent campaigner agains the closure of children's centres in the borough. This would be a major blow for Labour as it would mean the departure of Cllr Polly Knewstub, who currently serves as Cabinet Member for Healthy Equal Lives and Yoel Gordon, who was first elected to Ealing Council 24 years ago.

Hanwell Broadway
Party	Candidate
Rejoin EU	Taslema Akhter
Reform UK	Reg Anderson
Reform UK	Jaroslaw Andrysiak
Liberal Democrat	Edward Cook
Conservative	Hussein Ali Dima
Labour	Alexander Ewart Dismore
Liberal Democrat	Leslie Glancy
Labour	Yoel Gordon
Conservative	Edward Iredale
Reform UK	Salim Izza
Labour	Polly Knewstub
Green Party	Natalia Kubica
Liberal Democrat	Stephen O'Shea
Conservative	Richard Reade
Green Party	Andrew Walkley
Green Party	Clare Welsby

Chances of a change of overall control of Ealing Council are deemed to be minimal according to Pollcheck which gives a 1% chance of this happening. The central prediction for Labour is 47 seats and it needs just 35 for a majority. The existing projections already incorporate a big swing away from Labour at the time of the last election but the rise of both Reform and the Greens has meant that the share of the vote of the winning councillors will be lower than in previous elections.

The big gainers are expected to be the Greens but currently the prediction is that the combined representation of the opposition parties will be only around half that of Labour. It should be added that the difference in victory and defeat in most wards will be measured in the tens or low hundreds so local factors could make these projections meaningless.

Register to vote

The elections will take place on Thursday 7 May. Residents who have not yet registered to vote have until  midnight on Monday 20 April to do so at www.gov.uk/registertovote

Can’t get to the polling station?

Anyone who is registered to vote can apply to have their ballot paper sent to them in the post. The deadline to apply for a postal vote, or to send written notification of changes to an existing postal or proxy arrangement, is 5pm on Tuesday 21 April.

Residents who wish to apply for someone to vote on their behalf, must submit a new proxy vote application. The deadline to apply for a proxy vote is 5pm on Tuesday 28 April.

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