Ealing Goes to the Polls

Voting begins in the local government elections

Ealing residents will be voting this Thursday (3 May) in the local election

Polling stations throughout the borough will be open from 7am till 10pm.

If you are not sure which ward you are in or where you need to go to vote Ealing Council have a polling station finder which will supply you this information if you enter your post code.

There are 23 wards that elect three councillors each to Ealing Council. Currently Labour have 53 of these seats with the Conservatives holding 12 and the Liberal Democrats 4.

Counting of votes will begin a few hours after the polls close.

For those who haven't voted before, here is the procedure at the polling station:

• The staff at the polling station will give you a ballot paper listing the candidates you can vote for
• Take your ballot paper into a polling booth so that no one can see how you vote. Read the ballot paper carefully, it will tell you how to cast your vote. Do not write anything else on the paper or your vote may not be counted
• Mark your ballot paper according to the instructions. A pencil will be provided for you to do this, but you may use your own pen if you prefer
• If you make a mistake on your ballot paper, don't worry – so long as you haven't already put it in the ballot box, just let the polling station staff know and they can issue you with a replacement ballot paper
• Fold your completed ballot paper in half, show the back to the Presiding Officer and then pop it in the ballot box – and that's it done!

The Conservatives look set to have to fight a rearguard action to defend the seats they currently hold. These are all in the centre of the borough around the Ealing town area. The polls were already suggesting it would be a difficult election for them when the Windrush scandal broke and the Home Secretary Amber Rudd was forced to resign.

In a borough which strongly supported staying in the EU Brexit is likely to be an issue particularly with all residents EU citizens allowed to vote in this election. The Conservatives will be hoping that anti-Brexit votes will be split between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

Ward By Ward Analysis

Northfield

The Conservatives hold all three seats in this ward and look highly vulnerable in at least two for which a swing of just 3.1% is necessary for Labour to win. In the third seat the high personal vote achieved by David Millican, who is standing again makes the swing needed to take the seat held by him much higher. The Conservatives may also benefit from the lack of a UKIP candidate this time out. The Greens outperformed the Liberal Democrats in 2014 when fielding a full slate of candidates. This time they are standing just one hoping to gain the third vote of supporters of other parties.

The ward has a very significant proportion of voters that are EU passport holders from other countries at 18.2% according to the 2011 census. This number is likely to have risen markedly since that time. Even though most of these residents were not allowed to vote in the EU Referendum, the ward had one of the highest pro-Remain votes in the country at 71%

Ealing Common

Ealing Common ward currently has two Conservative councillors and one Liberal Democrat. Assuming that a swing to the Liberal Democrats means that their incumbent councillor is re-elected then the Liberal Democrats need only a 4.5% swing from the Conservatives to take the other two seats. They will be hoping that Brexit is a big factor in the election as the ward voted by 70% to remain in the EU and 17.7% of residents holding passports from other EU countries according to the 2011 census.

For Labour to take the two seats currently held by the Conservatives they would need a swing to them of 6.5%

The Conservatives may benefit from a lack of a UKIP candidate this time out.

Cleveland Ward

The Conservatives hold just one seat in this ward and will do well to hang on to it with just a 2.5% swing to Labour required for them to make a gain here. The Greens will also be looking at the ward with interest as they outperformed the Lib Dems last time out.

Ealing Broadway

Three Conservative councillors hold the three seats in this ward having won substantial majorities in 2014. A lack of a UKIP candidate may help them defend the ward and Labour need a challenging 11.3% swing to take all of the seats. The Greens will also be hoping for a gain here having outperformed the Liberal Democrats in 2014. The big concern for the Conservatives will be how important Brexit is in the vote. The ward was the second most pro-EU in the borough during the referendum with 74% voting to remain and 18% of the population held a passport from another EU country in 2011.

Hanger Hill

This is the safest Conservative ward in the borough and a massive 14.6% swing would be needed to take all three seats including that currently held by Joy Morrissey the party's candidate for Westminster in the last General Election. Their main concern, as in other wards in the borough, will be the high level of support for Remain at 71% and the high concentration of EU citizens in the ward which was at 18.3% at the time of the last census. The impact of this might be somewhat mitigated by Duma Polska or Polish Pride fielding a full slate of candidates in the ward although the impact of this is difficult to predict.