Ealing Friends of the Earth is calling for the Mayor to go ahead with the West London tram scheme after publishing data which they say shows that very few roads will suffer from increased traffic.

They have renamed campaign group Save Ealing's Streets as 'Save 8 Streets' because they say that is the number of roads in the Ealing area which will see an increase in traffic.

They contradict claims that certain roads will be hard hit by increased traffic after the tram. Roads such as Eaton Rise, Gunnersbury Avenue (Pope's Lane to the A4) and Northfield Avenue could see decreases in traffic of up to 12.5% at peak times if the tram is built according to these figures, and many others show no change. Of those 8 roads anticipating an increase, such as Mattock Lane and Gordon Road, traffic could grow by between 5 and 22%. The information on a road by road basis is detailed in a table below, so you can see how it is anticipated that your road would be affected.

Christine Eborall from Ealing Friends of the Earth said: “Save Ealing’s Streets supporters don’t seem to realise that traffic in Ealing is set to keep on growing. Most streets will see more traffic without the tram than with it. With the tram, there will be money to spend on managing traffic in the affected roads. If the tram is stopped, there will be little or no money to manage traffic, so rat-running and congestion will increase. Is that what people really want?”

Will French of Save Ealing's Streets dismissed the validity of the numbers saying, "Figures quoted by FoE are based upon the results of traffic forecasts that are so unreliable that TfL will not discuss, explain or justify them. TfL has removed the forecasts from its website and they form no part of the documents currently being consulted on. No information has been provided about the assumptions that went into the forecasts but it is clear that they are based on TfL's highly questionable theory that traffic in West London will 'evaporate' once the tram has been built."

SES say that only around 6% of car journeys are replaced when new tram schemes are built. If this is the case for the West London Tram it will still mean around 25,000 vehicles a day trying to find a way along the Uxbridge Road corridor. They also point out that the study does not cover most roads in the area and say that the number of adversely affected roads would be considerably larger than stated by FOE. In addition the TfL numbers show a greater number of roads affected by an increase in traffic in off-peak periods."

Ealing FoE have based their conclusions on extensive traffic modelling carried out by Transport for London. The original work was conducted by the consultants Scott Wilson. The models cover a large area bounded generally by the A4/M4 (including Heathrow), A40/M40, M25 and Central London, and Ealing FoE have been through them with a fine-tooth comb, they say. Christine Eborall urges you not to dismiss the modelling out of hand - "The traffic modelling maps are available at the roadshow exhibitions which TfL is putting on as part of the tram consultation... to go along and see for yourself."

The models shows three scenarios:

1. The present day [2003] usage of the streets by all types of travellers
2. The 'With Tram' scenario which predicts the situation in 2011 if the tram is introduced along the Uxbridge Road and the 207 and 607 bus services removed
3. The 'No Tram' scenario which predicts the situation in 2011 without a tram but with the 207 bus service operated by bendy buses and at increased frequency [10 buses per hour]

Neither of the 2011 scenarios includes the following: Crossrail, major developments at White City, Southall Gas Works and Uxbridge Town Centre, Heathrow Terminal 5, possible extension to the Congestion Charging Zone, future parking restraints and charges. Neither do they include the impact of local traffic management of affected streets, except the 20mph zones which Ealing Council is already planning to put in place. Each scenario is produced for the peak period [7am - 10 am] and the interpeak period [10am - 4pm].

Ealing FoE have compared the 2011 With Tram and the 2011 Without Tram peak period scenarios (for the streets where data is available) for each of the centres along the Uxbridge Road. They say that without the tram, traffic along the Uxbridge Road will be unrestrained and is predicted to increase significantly, to the limits of its physical capacity. The surrounding residential streets are predicted to be used more as alternative routes, as drivers seek less congested routes.

West London Tram in Ealing

Predicted % changes to traffic levels in 2011 compared with 2003 [peak period] for roads in Ealing

Ealing   Predicted % increase / decrease in traffic levels between 2003 and 2011 [peak period] Net benefit   / disbenefit from tram ***=best off to   oo=worst off     WITHOUT the tram WITH the tram TRAM ROUTE [roads will all benefit from less traffic or no change] New Broadway (Longfield Av to Springbridge Rd) 7.5 -30 37.5 *** The Broadway (Springbridge Rd to The Mall) 7.5 -30 37.5 *** The Mall (Hamilton Rd to The Common) 2.5 2.5 0 - The Mall (The Broadway to Hamilton Rd) 7.5 -17.5 25 ** The Mall (The Common to A406) 17.5 7.5 10 * Uxbridge Rd (St Leonards Rd to Longfield Av) 17.5 -30 47.5 *** WINNERS [roads that will benefit from less traffic WITH the tram] Ascott Av (Warwick Rd to Ranelagh Rd) 17.5 7.5 10 * Bond St 17.5 7.5 10 * Brunner Rd 30 17.5 12.5 * Brunswick Rd 30 17.5 12.5 * Castlebar Rd (Mount Avenue to St Stephens Rd) 17.5 7.5 10 * Ealing Green 2.5 -2.5 5 * Eaton Rise 30 17.5 12.5 * Gunnersbury Av (Popes La to A4) 30 17.5 12.5 * Gunnersbury Drive 17.5 -17.5 35 *** Hanger La (A40 to Brunswick Rd) 30 7.5 22.5 ** Hanger La (Hillcrest Rd to Uxbridge Rd) 30 17.5 12.5 * High St -7.5 -17.5 10 * Kent Gdns 17.5 2.5 15 ** Montpelier Rd 7.5 -17.5 25 ** Mount Park Rd 7.5 -17.5 25 ** Northfield Avenue W5 -17.5 -30 12.5 * Park View Rd 17.5 2.5 15 ** Popes La (Elderberry Rd to Gunnersbury Dr) 17.5 7.5 10 * South Ealing Rd (Church La to Airedale Rd) -7.5 -17.5 10 * St Marys Rd (Warwick Rd to Ranelagh Rd) -2.5 -7.5 5 * Westbury Rd -2.5 -17.5 15 ** Woodville Gdns (Park View Rd to Hanger Lane) 17.5 2.5 15 ** Woodville Gdns (Westbury Rd to Park View Rd) -2.5 -17.5 15 ** NO CHANGE Airedale Rd 30 30 0 - Ascott Avenue (Ranelagh Rd to Elderberry Rd)         Bramley Rd 30 30 0 - Brentham Way 7.5 7.5 0 - Cairn Av 30 30 0 - Castlebar Hill 7.5 7.5 0 - Castlebar Rd (Eaton Rise to Haven Green) 17.5 17.5 0 - Castlebar Rd (Longfield Rd Rd to Eaton Rise) 7.5 7.5 0 - Corfton Rd -30 -30 0 - Elderberry Rd 17.5 17.5 0 - Grange Rd (Windsor Rd to The Common) 30 30 0 - Haven Green (E) -7.5 -7.5 0 - Haven Green (N) 7.5 7.5 0 - Haven La/Mountfield Rd -30 -30 0 - Hillcrest Rd -30 -30 0 - Kenilworth Rd 30 30 0 - Lammas Pk Gdns 30 30 0 - Lionel Rd N 30 30 0 - Little Ealing La 17.5 17.5 0 - Madeley Rd (Westbury Rd to Hanger Lane) -7.5 -7.5 0 - Madeley Rd (Haven Green to Westbury Rd) -17.5 -17.5 0 - Mount Avenue (Eaton Rise to Brentham Way) -2.5 -2.5 0 - Mount Avenue (Castlebar Rd to Eaton Rise) 17.5 17.5 0 - Pitshanger La 17.5 17.5 0 - Popes La (Gunnersbury Drive to A406) 17.5 17.5 0 - Popes La (Lionel Rd N to Elderberry Rd) 7.5 7.5 0 - Popes La (S Ealing Rd to Lionel Rd N) 17.5 17.5 0 - Ranelagh Rd 17.5 17.5 0 - Scotch Common 17.5 17.5 0 - South Ealing Rd (Airedale Rd to Popes La) 7.5 7.5 0 - St Marys Rd (Grange Rd to Warwick Rd) 2.5 2.5 0 - The Common 30 30 0 - Warwick Rd 30 30 0 - West Rd -30 -30 0 - Woodfield Rd 30 30 0 - LOSERS [streets that will see increase in traffic levels WITH the tram] Castlebar Rd (St Stephens Rd to Longfield Rd) 7.5 17.5 -10 o Church La -7.5 7.5 -15 oo Gordon Rd (Longfield Av to Springbridge Rd) 17.5 30 -12.5 o Gordon Rd (St Leonards Rd to Longfield Av) 7.5 30 -22.5 oo Grange Rd (St Mary's Rd to Windsor Rd) 17.5 30 -12.5 o Hamilton Rd 2.5 17.5 -15 oo Mattock Lane W5 2.5 17.5 -15 oo Swyncombe Av 17.5 30 -12.5 o Windmill Rd 17.5 30 -12.5 o LOSERS[MAIN ROADS] Gunnersbury Av (Uxbridge Rd to Popes La) 17.5 30 -12.5 o Hanger La (Brunswick Rd to Hillcrest Rd) 2.5 7.5 -5 o South Ealing Rd (Popes La to A4) 7.5 17.5 -10 o

© Ealing Friends of the Earth, June 2004